JOHANNESBURG, 15 November (IRIN) -

As Namibia's 800,000 eligible voters prepare to elect a president and a 72-member national assembly on 30 November and 1 December, the newly-formed Congress of Democrats (CoD) hopes to put up a serious challenge to the ruling Southwest Africa Peoples Organisation (SWAPO) of President Sam Nujoma.

An official of the Directorate of Elections told IRIN on Monday that the CoD was among nine parties which had registered to contest the third general elections since Nujoma led this nation of 1.6 million people to independence from South Africa in 1990.

The key issues facing a growingly apathetic electorate range from the country's military intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), secessionist tensions in a swathe of territory in the northeast called the Caprivi Strip, high unemployment and low job prospects, to concerns over the growing spread of HIV/AIDS.

In an interview with IRIN, the CoD president, Ben Ulenga, said: "SWAPO can wave its two-thirds majority goodbye because we have made inroads into their strongholds." Ulenga, who was once a member of SWAPO's central committee and a deputy environment minister, resigned his diplomatic post in London last year as Namibian high commissioner after a constitutional change allowing Nujoma to serve a third presidential term. He formed the CoD in March.

Considered the most prominent presidential opponent, Ulenga, 47, hails from similar ethnic and social roots to Nujoma. A generation younger than Nujoma, 70, he said his party has attracted mostly young people, who want alternative solutions to their unfulfilled expectations.

Nora Schimming-Chase, spokeswoman of CoD told IRIN that about 37 percent of its membership are former SWAPO members and another 30 percent from other parties, including the opposition Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA).

According to Schimming-Chase, the battle for voter loyalty will be fought in the northern Ovambo ethnic heartland, which is not only the most heavily populated region of the country, but also considered SWAPO's traditional stronghold.

Analysts, however, say it is still early to tell what percentage of the vote the new party will gain. "It will only be after the elections that an assessment can be made of the CoD's impact on the political landscape," an analyst at the University of Namibia told IRIN. The main problem now, added the analyst, is the apparent voter apathy that has been noticed in the second elections in 1994.

Voter apathy

According to figures released by the Elections Directorate, voter turnout has dropped by about 21 percent since the first democratic elections in 1989, when 97 percent of voters went to the polls as opposed to the 76 percent who voted in the 1994 polls that gave SWAPO its two-thirds majority.

Voter turnout has also plummeted in regional and local authority polls, the directorate added. In 1992, 81 percent turned up for regional elections while 82 percent voted in municipal elections. However, last year's second regional councils elections attracted only 40 percent of voters, while only 34 percent participated in municipal polls.

The directorate attributed this drop in part because many voters believe that leaders are elected or appointed for life, and not for a five-year period, while others have became disillusioned because of the government's perceived failure to deliver on promises pledged at the time of independence.

Military involvement in DRC

Political observers in the capital, Windhoek, told IRIN that Nujoma's decision to send intervention troops, along with Zimbabwe and Angola to support DRC President Laurent-Desire Kabila against Rwandan and Ugandan-backed rebels, has become one of the most divisive national issues.

"Namibia's involvement in the DRC war has focused the attention of the nation on issues related to good governance," said one expert. "There was no discussion in parliament of the country's decision to send troops to DRC. This involvement only became public knowledge when newspapers started reporting on it."

When Ulenga quit SWAPO, he cited this intervention as one of the main reasons for his dissent.

At least 18 Namibian soldiers have reportedly died in DRC. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), a further 11 soldiers whom it has visited, are being held as prisoners of war (POWs) in the Rwandan capital, Kigali.

Secessionist tensions

The flare-up of secessionist violence in Caprivi in August has left the political situation tense and will test Namibians ability to live together as members of different ethnic groupings. "The Caprivi situation is unfortunate as a lot of suffering has been brought to the innocent and law abiding residents of the region," said another analyst.

Ethnic tensions became evident when charges of "ethnic cleansing" were levelled at the soldiers dispatched to enforce a state of emergency in Caprivi. More than 500 Caprivians were arrested in the security swoop which the Namibian Society of Human Rights (NSHR) described as a crackdown on the Caprivi's minority Mafwe tribe by the Ovambo-speaking dominated Namibian Defence Force (NDF).

HIV/AIDS on the increase

Meanwhile, economists are concerned that the HIV/AIDS epidemic will pre-empt any human resource development efforts that the country may have because many of those who will be trained will fall prey to the disease. Citing an infection rate in major population areas as high as 35 percent, they said the government did not have a visible national programme for monitoring and curbing the spread of the disease.

According to Namibia's National AIDS Coordination Programme (NACOP), an NGO dealing with the issue, nearly 6,000 Namibians have already died of AIDS in the past 10 years, while more than 5,000 were hospitalised last year. NACOP has forecast that the country's HIV infections are set to break the 200,000 mark by the end of this year, adding that more than 60,000 HIV-positive cases were recorded between 1988 and June this year.

High unemployment

A recent government report painted a bleak picture of the job market's ability to absorb the thousands of young people who complete school every year. The Presidential Commission on Education, Culture and Training, in a draft report, stated that by the year 2010 Namibia would have produced more than 200,000 secondary school-leavers who will not find "gainful employment".

At the same time, the country's Ministry of Youth and Sport told IRIN earlier this year that unemployment had grown to about 35 percent, or 547,000 economically active people. The ministry added that 70 percent of this figure comprised rural women, while this year alone, 16,000 school-leavers were competing for 4,000 new jobs.

The labour ministry, meanwhile, estimates that the country's labour force grows at an average of 4.2 percent a year, while formal employment growth is less than 2.3 percent annually.

Political intimidation

The CoD, according to Schimming-Chase, is concerned at the political intimidation that has resulted in the party's campaign posters being pulled down as soon as they are put up and the disruption of some of their rallies. "The constitutionally-entrenched freedom of expression and association is under threat," said Schimming-Chase, who added that CoD members face continuous intimidation from SWAPO supporters, especially those employed in the civil service.

The NSHR, echoing CoD's concerns, last week wrote an open letter to Nujoma objecting to SWAPO's campaign of alleged intimidation against the new party's members. "Such a campaign appears to have a sole objective of denying political parties, other than SWAPO, access to the electorate as well as to prevent such electorate and the public to attend rallies organised by such parties," the NSHR said in the letter.

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